Republican primary · August 18, 2026
Florida house Republican primary
Field of 7 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
79
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.4pp).
Forecast CI width71
21.4pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution71 / 100
Measured21.4pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 5 polls + fundamentals1Carmine Marceno
2Jim OberweisJames D. Oberweis (born June 10, 1946) is an American businessman, investment manager, and politician from the state of Illinois . The forme…
3Catalina LaufThe Catalina affair was a military confrontation and Cold War-era diplomatic crisis in June 1952, in which Soviet Air Force fighter jets sho…
4Madison CawthornDavid Madison Cawthorn is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district from…
5Jim SchwartzelThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives …
6Chris CollinsChris Collins may refer to:
7John StrandJohn Strand ( Republican Party ) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent Florida's 19th Congressional District . He is on the…
8Mike PedersenThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives …
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Cawthorn | Collins | Lauf | Oberweis | Pedersen | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 26 | Victory Insights | 350 · LV | 5 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 4 | +7 |
| Oct 5, 25 | Inquire | 302 · LV | 8 | 9 | — | 8 | — | +1 |
| Oct 5, 25 | Inquire | 302 · LV | 4 | 5 | — | 7 | — | +2 |
| Oct 5, 25 | Inquire | 302 · LV | 8 | — | — | 17 | — | +9 |
| Oct 5, 25 | Inquire | 302 · LV | 8 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +1 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 5 candidates with no endorsements yetCatalina Lauf · 3Madison Cawthorn · 2
RCatalina Lauf3 endorsers
Most notable · Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Burgess Owens · UT-04 (2021–present)
- Jim Banks · Indiana (2025–present)
RMadison Cawthorn2 endorsers
Most notable · Markwayne Mullin · secretary of homeland security (2026–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Markwayne Mullin · secretary of homeland security (2026–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Republicans for National Renewal
RChris Collins0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJim Oberweis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Pedersen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJim Schwartzel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJohn Strand0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-03In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.29
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.33 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.29
Week-over-weekshift +0.33 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 35%
Neutral 59%
R 6%
41% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets35%
Neutral59%
R-leaning outlets6%
41% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
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Florida Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Florida 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Florida 23rd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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'The race is wide open': Poll shows Jim Schwartzel, Jim Oberweis leading crowded CD 19 field
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Florida Property Tax Amendment: Ballot Language Summary
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Debate Drama Erupts in Florida Republican Governor’s Race | NewsRadio WIOD | The Ryan Gorman Show
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2026 Florida governor’s race heats up as candidates make their case
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks