Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Florida house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 85% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.4 (10th pctile) to D+2.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 85% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement73
14.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution73 / 100
Measured14.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.3
80% CI: R +29.4 → D +2.8 · win prob 15%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +19.3
80% CI R +23.4 → R +13.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +5.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 26¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the FL-16 House seat?” | 26¢ | 75¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetRSydney Gruters0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
16 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
16 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles16
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.25
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.25
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 31%
Neutral 62%
R 6%
38% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets31%
Neutral62%
R-leaning outlets6%
38% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
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Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements28 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage16 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks