Republican primary · August 18, 2026
Florida house Republican primary
Field of 3 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
80
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.9pp).
Forecast CI width73
21.9pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured21.9pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Eddie SpeirEduardo Alberto "Eddie" Perez is an American politician who served as the 65th mayor of Hartford, Connecticut, from 2001 to 2010. Prior to e…
2Sydney GrutersSydney Gruters ( Republican Party ) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent Florida's 16th Congressional District . She is on…
3Ed PopeEdward Leonard O'Neill (born April 12, 1946) is an American actor, comedian, and former football player. Over his career, he has earned four…
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Gruters | Pope | Speir | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11 | St. Pete Polls | 441 · LV | 49 | 7 | 13 | +36 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 28 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetEddie Speir · 28
REddie Speir28 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials16
Federal 9State 1Local 6
Elected officials · 16
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Sarasota · rschner, former mayor of Sarasota, former vice president and dean of Eckerd College, and regional nonprofit leader
- Steve Scalise · majority leader of the House of Representatives (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · majority whip of the House of Representatives (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House of Representatives (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Rick Scott · United States senator from Florida (2019–present)
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Lisa McClain · MI-09 (2021–present)
- Randy Fine · FL-06 (2025–present)
- Adam Hattersley · former state representative from the 59th district (2018–2020), candidate for the 15th district in 2020, and nominee for chief financial officer in 2022
- Bob Gualtieri · Pinellas County sheriff (2011–present)
- Chad Chronister · Hillsborough County sheriff (2017–present)
- DeSoto County · eSoto County sheriff
- Grady Judd · Polk County sheriff (2005–present)
- Hardee County · Hardee County sheriff
- Sarasota County · arasota County sheriff
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- AIPAC
- Hardee County Professional Firefighters
- Maggie's List
- Republican Liberty Caucus
- St. Petersburg Firefighters Association
- Suncoast Professional Firefighters and Paramedics
- Turning Point Action
Other4
Other · 4
- Manatee County · small business owner and candidate for Manatee County commission in 2024
- U.S. Air Force · S. Air Force veteran
- U.S. Army · s, U.S. Army veteran
- USPS · ony DeRibas, former USPS worker
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Richard Corcoran · president of the New College of Florida (2023–present)
RSydney Gruters0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REd Pope0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Republican primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
16 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
16 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles16
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.25
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.25
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 31%
Neutral 62%
R 6%
38% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets31%
Neutral62%
R-leaning outlets6%
38% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
N
Florida Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida 23rd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
NEW POLL SHOWS FRANK J. RUSSO GAINING MEANINGFUL TRACTION IN FLORIDA GOVERNOR'S RACE
W
Debate Drama Erupts in Florida Republican Governor’s Race | NewsRadio WIOD | The Ryan Gorman Show
L
2026 Florida governor’s race heats up as candidates make their case
F
‘What have we become?’: Paul Renner rips Florida GOP for thwarting gubernatorial debates
P
DeSantis zings Florida GOP over lack of governor primary debates
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements28 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage16 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks