Democratic primary · August 11, 2026
Connecticut house Democratic primary
Field of 4 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
84
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (24.2pp).
Forecast CI width81
24.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution81 / 100
Measured24.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1John LarsonJohn Barry Larson is an American businessman and Democratic Party politician serving as the U.S. representative for Connecticut's 1st congre…
2Luke BroninLuke Aaron Bronin (born June 30, 1979) is an American politician and lawyer who served as the 67th mayor of Hartford, Connecticut from 2016 …
3Jillian GilchrestJillian Marie Gilchrest is an American politician who is a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives from the 18th district in Hart…
4Ruth FortuneShortland Street is a New Zealand soap opera that has been broadcast on TV2 since 25 May 1992. The show centres on the title hospital and it…
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Bronin | Gilchrest | Larson | Fortune | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20 | Global Strategy Group | 500 · LV | 38 | 10 | 30 | 4 | +8 |
| Jan 31 | GQR | 400 · LV | 26 | 9 | 49 | — | +23 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 78 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetJohn Larson · 38Jillian Gilchrest · 24Luke Bronin · 15Ruth Fortune · 1
DJohn Larson38 endorsers
Most notable · Hakeem Jeffries · House minority leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
Elected officials22
Federal 11State 11Local 0
Elected officials · 22
- Hakeem Jeffries · House minority leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
- Jason Rojas · House majority leader (2021–present) from HD-09 (2009–present)
- William Tong · attorney general of Connecticut (2019–present)
- Gary Turco · HD-27 (2019–present)
- Henry Genga · HD-10 (2006–present)
- Jahana Hayes · CT-05 (2019–present)
- Jamie Raskin · MD-08 (2017–present)
- Jason Doucette · HD-13 (2019–present)
- Jim Clyburn · SC-06 (1993–present)
- Jim Himes · CT-04 (2009–present)
- Joe Courtney · CT-02 (2007–present)
- MD Rahman · SD-04 (2023–present)
- Mary Fortier · HD-79 (2023–present)
- Matt Lesser · SD-09 (2019–present)
- Patrick Biggins · HD-11 (2025–present)
- Rosa DeLauro · CT-03 (1991–present)
- Saud Anwar · SD-03 (2019–present)
- Barbara B. Kennelly · former CT-01 (1982–1999)
- Chris Dodd · former Connecticut (1981–2011)
- Chris Murphy · Connecticut (2013–present)
- Geoff Luxenberg · HD-12 (2011–2015, 2019–present)
- Richard Blumenthal · Connecticut (2011–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- AIPAC
- Alliance for Retired Americans
- American Federation of Government Employees · Locals 2138, 1674 & 1164
- Connecticut Building Trades Council
- Greater Hartford · Building Trades
- International Association of Machinists
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers
- J Street PAC
- Laborers' International Union of North America
- League of Conservation Voters
- Machinists · District 26
- National Association of Government Employees · Local R1-109
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sheet Metal Workers · Local 40
- State Council of Machinists · f Machinists
- Working Families Party
DJillian Gilchrest24 endorsers
Most notable · Aimee Berger-Girvalo · HD-111 (2021–present)
Elected officials21
Federal 0State 21Local 0
Elected officials · 21
- Aimee Berger-Girvalo · HD-111 (2021–present)
- Amy Morrin Bello · HD-28 (2020–present)
- Anne Meiman Hughes · HD-135 (2019–present)
- Ceci Maher · SD-26 (2023–present)
- Eleni Kavros DeGraw · HD-17 (2021–present)
- Jaime Foster · HD-57 (2021–present)
- Jennifer Leeper · HD-132 (2021–present)
- Kai Belton · HD-100 (2023–present)
- Kaitlyn Shake · HD-120 (2025–present)
- Kate Farrar · HD-20 (2021–present)
- Laurie Sweet · HD-91 (2025–present)
- Lucy Dathan · HD-142 (2019–present)
- Martha Marx · SD-20 (2023–present)
- Mary Welander · HD-114 (2021–present)
- Nick Gauthier · HD-38 (2025–present)
- Nick Menapace · HD-37 (2025–present)
- Rebecca Martinez · HD-22 (2025–present)
- Robin Comey · HD-102 (2019–present)
- Sarah Keitt · HD-134 (2023–present)
- Sujata Gadkar-Wilcox · SD-22 (2025–present)
- Beth Bye · commissioner of the Connecticut Office of Early Childhood (2019–present) and former SD-05 (2011–2019)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Indivisible · Connecticut
- Progressive Victory
- Track AIPAC
DLuke Bronin15 endorsers
Most notable · James Sánchez · HD-06 (2023–present)
Elected officials8
Federal 1State 3Local 4
Elected officials · 8
- James Sánchez · HD-06 (2023–present)
- Joshua M. Hall · HD-07 (2017–present)
- Julio Concepcion · HD-04 (2018–present)
- Arunan Arulampalam · mayor of Hartford (2024–present)
- Cromwell · metriades, mayor of Cromwell (2023-present)
- Newington · er, mayor of Newington (2024-present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
- Wethersfield · mayor of Wethersfield (2023-present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Local 1716
- College Democrats of Connecticut
- Democratic Party of Connecticut
- Uniformed Professional Firefighters Association of Connecticut
- United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America · Local 326
- VoteVets
Other1
Other · 1
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
DRuth Fortune1 endorser
Most notable · New American Leaders · Action Fund
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- New American Leaders · Action Fund
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-24Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-24
Endorsements80 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks