Democratic primary · June 30, 2026
Colorado house Democratic primary
Field of 3 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
74
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (18.4pp).
Forecast CI width61
18.4pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution61 / 100
Measured18.4pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 5 polls + fundamentals1Manny RutinelTonty "Manny" Rutinel is an American attorney and politician serving as a member of the Colorado House of Representatives for the 32nd distr…
2Yadira Caraveo
3Shannon BirdShannon Kathleen Bird is an American politician who was a member of the Colorado House of Representatives, where she represented the 29th di…
4Dave Young
5Evan MunsingEvan Munsing ( Democratic Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent Colorado's 8th Congressional District . He lost in the Dem…
6Amie Baca-Oehlert
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Bird | Munsing | Rutinel | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 26 | GBAO | 400 · LV | 31 | 5 | 44 | +13 |
| Apr 25, 26 | GBAO | 400 · LV | 32 | 5 | 31 | +1 |
| Apr 21, 26 | Normington Petts | 400 · LV | 25 | 6 | 24 | +1 |
| Feb 22, 26 | Normington Petts | 400 · LV | 19 | 4 | 20 | +1 |
| May 19, 25 | Public Policy Polling | 467 · RV | 5 | — | 8 | +3 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 39 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetManny Rutinel · 20Shannon Bird · 17Evan Munsing · 2
DManny Rutinel20 endorsers
Most notable · Adriano Espaillat · NY-13 (2017–present)
Elected officials12
Federal 8State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 12
- Adriano Espaillat · NY-13 (2017–present)
- Andrew Boesenecker · HD-53 (2021–present)
- Emily Randall · WA-06 (2025–present)
- Jennifer Bacon · HD-07 (2021–present)
- Junie Joseph · HD-10 (2023–present)
- Rob Menendez · NJ-08 (2023–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Teresa Leger Fernández · NM-03 (2021–present)
- Adrienne Benavidez · former HD-32 (2017–2023)
- Cory Booker · New Jersey (2013–present)
- Federico Peña · former secretary of energy (1997–1998)
- Gary Hart · former Colorado (1975–1987)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- 314 Action · Fund
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · BOLD PAC
- Latino Victory Fund
- New American Leaders · Action Fund
- SEIU · Colorado
- UFCW · Local 7
Other2
Other · 2
- Ken Salazar · former ambassador to Mexico (2021–2025)
- Martin O'Malley · former Social Security Administration commissioner (2023–2024)
DShannon Bird17 endorsers
Most notable · Julie McCluskie · speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (2023–present) from HD-13 (2019–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 4State 4Local 1
Elected officials · 10
- Julie McCluskie · speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (2023–present) from HD-13 (2019–present)
- Roy Romer · former governor of Colorado (1987–1999)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Kyle Mullica · SD-24 (2023–present)
- Steve Fenberg · former president of the Colorado Senate (2022–2025) from SD-18 (2017–2025)
- Betsy Markey · former assistant secretary of homeland security for intergovernmental affairs (2011–2013)
- David Skaggs · former CO-02 (1987–1999)
- Ed Perlmutter · former CO-07 (2007–2023)
- Yemi Mobolade · mayor of Colorado Springs (2023–present) (Independent)
- regent of the University of Colorado · y of Colorado from the at-large district (2025–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- Blue Dog PAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- NewDem Action Fund
- WelcomePAC
DEvan Munsing2 endorsers
Most notable · Seth Moulton · MA-06 (2015–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Seth Moulton · MA-06 (2015–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- VoteVets
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-27In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.25 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift −0.25 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 6%
Neutral 94%
6% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets6%
Neutral94%
R-leaning outlets0%
6% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
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Colorado First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-27
Endorsements52 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks