Races · house · 2026 · Connecticut
house · open seat
Connecticut house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 97% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.3 (10th pctile) to D+40.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 78/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
78
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement8
1.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution8 / 100
Measured1.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.4
80% CI: D +8.3 → D +40.5 · win prob 97%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +26.0
80% CI D +20.3 → D +37.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CT-01 House seat?” | 94¢ | 7¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 15 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet15
Endorsements tracked
Luke Bronin15 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total15
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DLuke Bronin15 endorsers
Most notable · James Sánchez · HD-06 (2023–present)
Elected officials8
Federal 1State 3Local 4
Elected officials · 8
- James Sánchez · HD-06 (2023–present)
- Joshua M. Hall · HD-07 (2017–present)
- Julio Concepcion · HD-04 (2018–present)
- Arunan Arulampalam · mayor of Hartford (2024–present)
- Cromwell · metriades, mayor of Cromwell (2023-present)
- Newington · er, mayor of Newington (2024-present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
- Wethersfield · mayor of Wethersfield (2023-present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Local 1716
- College Democrats of Connecticut
- Democratic Party of Connecticut
- Uniformed Professional Firefighters Association of Connecticut
- United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America · Local 326
- VoteVets
Other1
Other · 1
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-24Luke BroninH6CT01206 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$579.8K
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$0
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-24
Endorsements80 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks