Races · house · 2026 · Colorado
house · open seat
Colorado house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 61% D · market gap 21pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 82%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.6 (10th pctile) to D+19.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 61% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 94/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 61%, market says 82% — 21pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
94
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement46
9.2pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution46 / 100
Measured9.2pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.5
80% CI: R +12.6 → D +19.6 · win prob 61%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +3.0
80% CI R +17.6 → D +2.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +5.6
80% CI R +8.7 → R +2.5
CV MAE 2.38
consensusMarket-implied
D +9.1
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 17 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet17
Endorsements tracked
Shannon Bird17 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total17
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DShannon Bird17 endorsers
Most notable · Julie McCluskie · speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (2023–present) from HD-13 (2019–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 4State 4Local 1
Elected officials · 10
- Julie McCluskie · speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (2023–present) from HD-13 (2019–present)
- Roy Romer · former governor of Colorado (1987–1999)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Kyle Mullica · SD-24 (2023–present)
- Steve Fenberg · former president of the Colorado Senate (2022–2025) from SD-18 (2017–2025)
- Betsy Markey · former assistant secretary of homeland security for intergovernmental affairs (2011–2013)
- David Skaggs · former CO-02 (1987–1999)
- Ed Perlmutter · former CO-07 (2007–2023)
- Yemi Mobolade · mayor of Colorado Springs (2023–present) (Independent)
- regent of the University of Colorado · y of Colorado from the at-large district (2025–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- Blue Dog PAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- NewDem Action Fund
- WelcomePAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-27Shannon BirdH6CO08047 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$290.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.6M
D side
$1.1M · 68%
R side
$518.3K · 32%
Top spender
Women Vote
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women Vote other · boosts D
| D | $653.9K | 40% | for Shannon Bird |
| Nuestro PAC other · boosts R
| R | $315.0K | 19% | against Shannon Bird |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup4
Tossup · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupThe Economist
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.25 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift −0.25 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 6%
Neutral 94%
6% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets6%
Neutral94%
R-leaning outlets0%
6% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
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Colorado First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-27
Endorsements52 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks