Races · house · 2026 · CO

house · open seat

Alex Kelloff vs Jeff Hurd

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Likely R R +7.0 · 176 days to election · 3 polls · 0 markets Last poll 59d ago Rating 1d ago

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 60% R

likely-r · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +3.5

80% CI: R +21.0 → D +14.0 · win prob 40%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	3
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models1 models

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +3.5

80% CI R +21.0 → D +14.0

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 3 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:3 of 3 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
3/12/2026	Ragnar Research Partners	1.00	R	400	±5.0	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Jeff Hurd 46.0 · Alex Kelloff 41.0	poll arch
1/12/2026	Expedition Strategies	1.00	L	400	±4.9	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 118d old Poll was fielded 118 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 9 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Jeff Hurd 48.0 · Alex Kelloff 39.0	poll arch
11/3/2025	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	450	±4.6	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 188d old Poll was fielded 188 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Jeff Crank 43.0 · Jessica Killin 40.0 · Matt Cavanaugh 5.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Feb 6	-7.0	-7.0
Inside Elections	Tossup	Mar 7	-7.0	-7.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Tossup	Apr 10	-7.0	-7.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 8 weeks ago (3/12/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (2 changes)

5/6/2026 Likely R R+7.0 via polls held 2d
5/4/2026 Tossup via pvi