Races · house · 2026 · Colorado
house · open seat
Alex Kelloff vs Jeff Hurd
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 79% R · market gap 12pp
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+7.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.0 (10th pctile) to D+6.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 79% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 21%, market says 33% — 12pp gap.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.9
80% CI: R +26.0 → D +6.2 · win prob 21%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +13.5
80% CI R +16.2 → R +11.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +7.0
80% CI R +10.8 → R +3.2
CV MAE 2.95
consensusMarket-implied
R +4.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 32¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 9 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 32% · polls 41%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jan 12, 2026 · latest Expedition Strategies
Jeff Hurd
VoteHub48.0%
VoteHub
Polling average48.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg46.1%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average46.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.9 pt above our average
Alex Kelloff
VoteHub39.0%
VoteHub
Polling average39.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg40.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average40.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.9 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jan 12, 2026): Jeff Hurd 48.0%, Alex Kelloff 39.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -3.4decoupled | 41 · 46 |
| Jan 11 | Expedition Strategies+1For · Internal D-aligned | 400 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 39 · 48 |
Endorsements · 9 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet7
2
Endorsements tracked
Alex Kelloff7 · 78%
Jeff Hurd2 · 22%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAlex Kelloff7 endorsers
Most notable · Dylan Roberts · state senator from the 8th district (2023–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 1State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Dylan Roberts · state senator from the 8th district (2023–present)
- Gail Schwartz · former state senator from the 5th district (2007–2015)
- Diane Mitsch Bush · former state representative from the 26th district (2013–2017)
- Elizabeth Velasco · state representative from the 57th district (2023–present)
- John Salazar · former CO-03 (2005–2011)
- Katie Stewart · state representative from the 59th district (2025–present)
- Matthew Martinez · state representative from the 62nd district (2023–present)
RJeff Hurd2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-23Jeff HurdH4CO03357 ↗
Receipts
$3.3M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Alex KelloffH6CO03212 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$968.9K
Cash on hand
$243.2K
Debts
$550.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$119.6K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$119.6K · 100%
Top spender
Center Forward Init…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Center Forward Initiative Inc (CFI) other · boosts R
| R | $99.2K | 83% | for Jeff Hurd |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY other · boosts R
| R | $10.4K | 9% | for Jeff Hurd |
| WESTERN WAY ACTION PAC other · boosts R
| R | $10.0K | 8% | for Jeff Hurd |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- The Economist · May 5
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Safe R1
Safe R · 1 rater
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-23
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks