Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Mike Levin vs Armen Kurdian
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 90% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 94%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+15.9 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+32.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +15.9
80% CI: R +0.2 → D +32.0 · win prob 90%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +8.9
80% CI D +5.5 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.0
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 24 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet23
1
Endorsements tracked
Mike Levin23 · 96%
Armen Kurdian1 · 4%
Total24
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMike Levin23 endorsers
Most notable · Juan Vargas · CA-52 (2013–present)
Organizations18
Organizations · 18
- AIPAC
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Council for a Livable World
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Orange County · Democrats
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- San Marcos · Democratic Club
- Sierra Club
Elected officials5
Federal 4State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 5
- Juan Vargas · CA-52 (2013–present)
- Sara Jacobs · CA-51 (2021–present)
- Scott Peters · CA-50 (2013–present)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Todd Gloria · mayor of San Diego (2013–2014, 2020–present)
RArmen Kurdian1 endorser
Most notable · Darrell Issa · CA-48 (2001-2019, 2021–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Darrell Issa · CA-48 (2001-2019, 2021–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19Mike LevinH8CA49058 ↗
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Armen KurdianH6CA49169 ↗
Receipts
$23.2K
Disburse
$15.8K
Cash on hand
$7.4K
Debts
$15.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$68.0K
D side
$61.0K · 90%
R side
$7.1K · 10%
Top spender
LCV Victory Fund
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCV Victory Fund other · boosts D
| D | $60.4K | 89% | for Mike Levin |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY pac · boosts R
| R | $4.6K | 7% | against Mike Levin |
| REFORM LEADERS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.5K | 4% | for Armen Kurdian |
| ACTIVATE AMERICA super pac · boosts D
| D | $394.8 | 1% | for Mike Levin |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $86.33 | 0% | for Mike Levin |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $28.96 | 0% | for Mike Levin |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks