Races · house · 2026 · California

house · open seat

Dave Min vs Bill Brough

← California house California house →

Likely DD +14.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
88% Min (D)
12% Brough (R)
Win probability
Dave Min88% (D)
Bill Brough12% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +14.7
80% CIR+1.4 → D+30.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +14.7 · 80% CI R+1.4 → D+30.8 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 88% D

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 94%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.4 (10th pctile) to D+30.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +14.7

80% CI: R +1.4 → D +30.8 · win prob 88%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +5.5

80% CI R +14.1 → D +19.9

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +10.5

80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1

CV MAE 1.24

consensusMarket-implied

D +15.2

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-47 House seat?”	94¢	6¢	+0¢	—	-0
Kalshi “CA-47 House winner?”	94¢	3¢	+0¢	$0K	+0

Endorsements · 20 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

20Min · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Dave Min20 · 100%
Bill Brough0 · 0%
Total20
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DDave Min20 endorsers

Most notable · Asian American Action Fund

Organizations20

RBill Brough0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-27

Dave MinH4CA47085 ↗

Receipts

$3.1M

Disburse

$1.5M

Cash on hand

$1.8M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Bill BroughOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$7.1K

Disburse

$6.6K

Cash on hand

$488.42

Debts

$1.5K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$717.8K

D side

$713.3K · 99%

R side

$4.6K · 1%

Top spender

LCV Victory Fund

For / against split

For Min $713.3K

Against Min $4.6K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
LCV Victory Fund	D	$589.1K	82%	for Dave Min
Protect Progress	D	$107.9K	15%	for Dave Min
HMP	D	$15.2K	2%	for Dave Min
THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY	R	$4.6K	1%	against Dave Min
ACTIVATE AMERICA	D	$680.77	0%	for Dave Min

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

The Economist

Safe D

May 5

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 2, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 14, 2026Safe Dmodel

Jun 4, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-27

Endorsements20 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks