Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Heidi Hall vs Kevin Kiley
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 77% D · market gap 18pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 95%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.0 (10th pctile) to D+25.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 77% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 77%, market says 95% — 18pp gap.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.1
80% CI: R +7.0 → D +25.2 · win prob 77%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +4.9
80% CI R +13.1 → R +1.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.0
80% CI R +7.5 → D +3.5
CV MAE 4.25
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 49 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 94% · polls 45%.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9 | Tulchin Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 400 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 45 · 47 |
Endorsements · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet5
Endorsements tracked
Heidi Hall5 · 100%
Kevin Kiley0 · 0%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DHeidi Hall5 endorsers
Most notable · Jared Huffman · CA-02 (2013–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- California Environmental Voters
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Progressive Victory
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Jared Huffman · CA-02 (2013–present)
RKevin Kiley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19Heidi Hall
Receipts
$573.2K
Disburse
$512.9K
Cash on hand
$62.7K
Debts
$86.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$971.08
D side
$771.08 · 79%
R side
$200 · 21%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements25 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks