Public domain
DemocratRunning for CA-3 U.S. House · 2026
Heidi Hall
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 52 U.S. representatives from the State of California, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The passage of Proposition 50 in 2025 significantly altered many districts. The primary elections took place on June 2, 2026.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Heidi Hall is running for California's 3rd Congressional District House seat in 2026, trailing Kevin Kiley in polling by roughly 2 percentage points (about 45% to 47%), though market odds give her approximately a 90% win probability. She has raised about $600,000 for her campaign.
45%
Polling average
our aggregate
92%
Win probability
market-implied
$573k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Hall's money comes from.
A
91/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — outside-money exposure is the standout.
0 watch items
Small-dollar reliance86
43% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence88
3% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding91
9% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$573k
Raised
$513k
Spent
$63k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
43% small (<$200)54% large indiv.3% PAC
91% in-state · 9% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-13 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Hall is running in.
CA · HOUSE · 2026safe d
Hall (D) vs Kevin Kiley (R)
45%−2.0 Kiley47%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Hall and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: HENDRIK M. STOOPS LUGO · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Democrat · CA-3 U.S. House
Heidi Hall
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 52 U.S. representatives from the State of California, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The passage of Proposition 50 in 2025 significantly altered many districts. The primary elections took place on June 2, 2026.
Where Hall standsRace →
Hall 45%Kevin Kiley 47%
Market · wins
92¢
45%
Poll avg
92%
Win prob
$573k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Heidi Hall is running for California's 3rd Congressional District House seat in 2026, trailing Kevin Kiley in polling by roughly 2 percentage points (about 45% to 47%), though market odds give her approximately a 90% win probability. She has raised about $600,000 for her campaign.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Hall's money comes from.
A
91/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — outside-money exposure is the standout.
0 watch items
Small-dollar reliance86
43% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence88
3% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding91
9% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$573k
Raised
$513k
Spent
$63k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
43% small (<$200)54% large indiv.3% PAC
91% in-state · 9% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-13 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: HENDRIK M. STOOPS LUGO · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)