Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Chris Espinosa vs Samuel Gallucci
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 94% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+3.9 (10th pctile) to D+36.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 94% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.0
80% CI: D +3.9 → D +36.1 · win prob 94%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +17.2
80% CI D +11.2 → D +23.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-26 House seat?” | 94¢ | 6¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet7
Endorsements tracked
Chris Espinosa7 · 100%
Samuel Gallucci0 · 0%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DChris Espinosa7 endorsers
Most notable · Adelita Grijalva · AZ-07 (2025–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Climate Hawks Vote
- Food & Water · Action
- Friends of the Earth · Action
- Indivisible · Ventura
- Progressive Democrats of America
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Adelita Grijalva · AZ-07 (2025–present)
RSamuel Gallucci0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-28Samuel Gallucci
Receipts
$320.6K
Disburse
$297.3K
Cash on hand
$23.3K
Debts
$101.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chris Espinosa
Receipts
$104.1K
Disburse
$85.9K
Cash on hand
$18.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$368.9K
D side
$368.9K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-28
Endorsements40 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks