Races · house · 2026 · California

house · open seat

Caleb Norwood vs Jason Gibbs

← California house California house →

Likely DD +14.5 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
88% Norwood (D)
12% Gibbs (R)
Win probability
Caleb Norwood88% (D)
Jason Gibbs12% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +14.5
80% CIR+1.6 → D+30.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +14.5 · 80% CI R+1.6 → D+30.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.9%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 93¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 88% D

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 94%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.6 (10th pctile) to D+30.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +14.5

80% CI: R +1.6 → D +30.6 · win prob 88%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +5.5

80% CI R +14.1 → D +19.9

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +10.5

80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1

CV MAE 1.24

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.6

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 93¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?”	93¢	7¢	+0¢	—	-0
Kalshi “CA-27 House winner?”	94¢	7¢	+1¢	$0K	+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

Gibbs · 100%2
Endorsements tracked
Caleb Norwood0 · 0%
Jason Gibbs2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RJason Gibbs2 endorsers

Most notable · California Republican Party

Elected officials2

Federal 1State 0Local 0

DCaleb Norwood0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-28

Jason GibbsOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$346.9K

Disburse

$154.9K

Cash on hand

$192.0K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Caleb NorwoodOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$350

Disburse

Cash on hand

$350

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.1M

D side

$1.1M · 100%

R side

$4.6K · 0%

Top spender

—

For / against split

For Whitesides $1.1M

Against Whitesides $4.6K

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

The Economist

Safe D

May 5

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 2, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 29, 2026Safe Dmodel

Jun 26, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 24, 2026Safe Dmodel

Jun 4, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

+ 2 earlier changes

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-28

Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks