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Races · house · 2026 · Arizona
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Arizona house

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Safe RR +21.4 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 214d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
4% (D)
96% Grantham (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +21.4 · 80% CI R+37.5 → R+5.3 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 12¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.5 (10th pctile) to R+5.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.4
80% CI: R +37.5 → R +5.3 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.3
80% CI R +2.2 → D +4.8
CV MAE 2.73
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.1
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 12¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?”
12¢87¢-2¢—+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
Grantham · 100%2
RTravis Grantham2 endorsers
Most notable · Michael Carbone · majority leader of the Arizona House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 25th district (2023–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-18
Travis GranthamOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$612.0K
Disburse
$537.4K
Cash on hand
$74.8K
Debts
$311.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$80.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$80.0K · 100%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Lamb $80.0K

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
The Economist
Likely R
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Tossupmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-18
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks