Republican primary · July 21, 2026
Arizona house Republican primary
Field of 4 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
86
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.3pp).
Forecast CI width71
21.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution71 / 100
Measured21.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 7 polls + fundamentals1Mark LambMark William Lamb (born August 3, 1964) is a Canadian former professional ice hockey player, and current general manager and head coach of t…
2Jake Hoffman
3Michael Way
4Justin Olson
5Travis Padilla
6Travis GranthamTravis Grantham is an American politician and a Republican former member of the Arizona House of Representatives elected to represent Distri…
7Daniel KeenanAttorney Politician
8Jay FeelyThomas James Feely is an American former professional football player and politician. He started his playing career as a placekicker with th…
All polls · 7 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lamb | Feely | Grantham | Keenan | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4 | Victory Insights | 500 · LV | 64 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +61 |
| Oct 11 | NextGenP | 830 · LV | 54 | 7 | 3 | — | +47 |
| Oct 11 | NextGenP | 830 · LV | 54 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +47 |
| Jun 3 | NextGenP | 953 · LV | 55 | 8 | 3 | — | +47 |
| Jun 3 | NextGenP | 953 · LV | 55 | 8 | 3 | 1 | +47 |
| Feb 27 | NextGenP | 892 · LV | 49 | — | 2 | — | +47 |
| Feb 15 | Victory Insights | — · unknown | — | — | 19 | — | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 13 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetMark Lamb · 11Travis Grantham · 2
RMark Lamb11 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 6State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House Majority Leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Jake Hoffman · state senator from the 15th district (2023–present)
- Eli Crane · AZ-02 (2023–present)
- Paul Gosar · AZ-09 (2011–present)
- David McIntosh · former IN-02 (1995–2001)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Arizona Police Association
- Club for Growth
- Freedom Caucus Fund
- Turning Point Action
RTravis Grantham2 endorsers
Most notable · Michael Carbone · majority leader of the Arizona House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 25th district (2023–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Michael Carbone · majority leader of the Arizona House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 25th district (2023–present)
- Trent Franks · former AZ-08 (2013–2017)
RJay Feely0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDaniel Keenan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-18Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 7deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-18
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks