Races · house · 2026 · Arizona
house · open seat
Arizona house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 86% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.3 (10th pctile) to D+29.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 86% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement62
12.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution62 / 100
Measured12.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +13.8
80% CI: R +2.3 → D +29.9 · win prob 86%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +8.9
80% CI D +5.5 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.3
80% CI R +2.2 → D +4.8
CV MAE 2.73
consensusMarket-implied
D +9.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 84¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat?” | 84¢ | 18¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet3
Endorsements tracked
Kai Newkirk3 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DKai Newkirk3 endorsers
Most notable · Our Revolution
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Our Revolution
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Track AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-07-09Kai Newkirk
Receipts
$18.7K
Disburse
$5.2K
Cash on hand
$13.5K
Debts
$1.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$90
D side
$90 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
24 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
24 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles24
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.21
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.43 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.21
Week-over-weekshift −0.43 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 21%
Neutral 79%
21% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets21%
Neutral79%
R-leaning outlets0%
21% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Arizona candidate picked centrism over democratic socialism. Will it work with primary voters?
N
Arizona Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
A
4 Democrats vie for 2 safe seats in Arizona’s LD21 House race
Y
Pima County Republicans challenges Arizona rules on electioneering at polling sites
K
The 2020 presidential election looms large in Arizona's 2026 governor's race
N
Arizona Fifth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Arizona Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
How do I find my polling location in Arizona?
A
How do I find my polling location in Arizona?
A
How do I find my polling location in Arizona?
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-07-09
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage24 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks