Democratic primary · July 21, 2026
Arizona house Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
70
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.2pp).
Forecast CI width64
19.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution64 / 100
Measured19.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Greg StantonGregory John Stanton is an American lawyer and politician who is the U.S. representative from Arizona's 4th congressional district, serving …
2Kai NewkirkNoah Kai Newkirk (born August 26, 1980) is an American organizer and activist. He co-founded the campaign-finance reform group 99Rise in 201…
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Newkirk | Stanton | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28 | FM3 | 422 · RV | 23 | 56 | +33 |
| Jun 28 | FM3 Research | 422 · RV | 23 | 56 | +33 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 12 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetGreg Stanton · 9Kai Newkirk · 3
DGreg Stanton9 endorsers
Most notable · Adelita Grijalva · AZ-07 (2025–present)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- AIPAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Adelita Grijalva · AZ-07 (2025–present)
DKai Newkirk3 endorsers
Most notable · Our Revolution
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Our Revolution
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Track AIPAC
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2025-07-09In the news
24 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
24 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles24
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.21
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.43 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.21
Week-over-weekshift −0.43 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 21%
Neutral 79%
21% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets21%
Neutral79%
R-leaning outlets0%
21% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Arizona candidate picked centrism over democratic socialism. Will it work with primary voters?
N
Arizona Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
A
4 Democrats vie for 2 safe seats in Arizona’s LD21 House race
Y
Pima County Republicans challenges Arizona rules on electioneering at polling sites
K
The 2020 presidential election looms large in Arizona's 2026 governor's race
N
Arizona Fifth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Arizona Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
How do I find my polling location in Arizona?
A
How do I find my polling location in Arizona?
A
How do I find my polling location in Arizona?
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-07-09
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage24 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks