Races · house · 2024 · Tennessee
house · open seat
Maryam Abolfazli vs Andy Ogles
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+26.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.3 (10th pctile) to R+14.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +26.3
80% CI: R +38.3 → R +14.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+17.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRAndy Ogles0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMaryam Abolfazli0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-19Andy OglesH2TN05446 ↗
Receipts
$986.2K
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$61.9K
Debts
$20.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
FISHER INVESTMENTS$6.6K
JIUDE INC$6.6K
CORECIVIC$6.6K
QMO LLC$6.6K
PLANO 6500 LLC$6.6K
Maryam AbolfazliH4TN05145 ↗
Receipts
$428.5K
Disburse
$428.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$8.4K
Health professionals · $8.4K
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center · $8.4K
Individuals $8.4K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$3.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $3.5K
- National Women's Law Center · $3.5K
Individuals $3.5K · PACs $0
Education$3.3K
Education · $3.3K
- University of Arizona College of Medic · $3.3K
Individuals $3.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER$8.4K
VANDERBILT$5.8K
NATIONAL WOMEN'S LAW CENTER$3.5K
QUILVEST CAPITAL PARTNERS$3.3K
Q PRIME INC$3.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.5M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.5M · 100%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.1M | 75% | for Andy Ogles |
| HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $243.4K | 17% | for Andy Ogles |
| VOLUNTEERS FOR FREEDOM PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $60.4K | 4% | for Andy Ogles |
| GUN RIGHTS AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $31.0K | 2% | for Andy Ogles |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $25.9K | 2% | for Andy Ogles |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R3
Likely R · 3 raters
- CNalysis · Aug 17
- Elections Daily · Oct 9
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 22
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Feb 1
- Inside Elections · Mar 9
CNalysis
Likely RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks