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Races · house · 2024 · Ohio
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Marcy Kaptur vs Steve Lankenau

← Ohio houseOhio house →
Likely DD +5.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
80% Kaptur (D)
20% Lankenau (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +5.2 · 80% CI R+6.8 → D+17.1
Actual result D+0.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 80% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.8 (10th pctile) to D+17.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 80% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.2
80% CI: R +6.8 → D +17.1 · win prob 80%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+0.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMarcy Kaptur0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSteve Lankenau0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-07
Marcy KapturH2OH09031 ↗
Receipts
$5.1M
Disburse
$5.0M
Cash on hand
$448.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$12.1K
Top contributors
NO EMPLOYER$15.4K
UNIVERSITY OF TOLEDO$12.1K
TURTLE PLASTICS$11.9K
THE DASCHLE GROUP$11.6K
CONLON PUBLIC STRATEGIES$10.0K
Steve LankenauOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$135.8K
Disburse
$135.8K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$66.3K
Top industries
TV / movies / music$1.0K
Top contributors
PROMEDICA$3.8K
20 20 CUSTOM MOLDED PLASTICS$3.3K
SAUDER VILLAGE$3.0K
TC BROS. CHOPPERS$2.0K
VENTURE VISIONARY PARTNERS$1.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$35.4M
D side
$20.8M · 59%
R side
$14.6M · 41%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Kaptur $2.2M
Against Merrin $18.6M
Against Kaptur $11.8M
For Merrin $2.8M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$5.9M17%against Marcy Kaptur
NRCCR$5.3M15%against Marcy Kaptur
NEW AMERICAN JOBS FUNDD$1.7M5%for Marcy Kaptur
AMERICA PACR$554.6K2%against Marcy Kaptur
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$146.8K0%for Marcy Kaptur

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D4
Tilt D1
CNalysis
Lean D
Aug 17
Cook Political Report
Lean D
Sep 5
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt D
May 8
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Feb 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks