Races · house · 2024 · New Mexico

house · open seat

Gabe Vasquez vs Yvette Herell

← New Mexico house New Mexico house →

Tilt DD +1.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
57% Vasquez (D)
43% Herell (R)
Win probability
Gabe Vasquez57% (D)
Yvette Herell43% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +1.1
80% CIR+10.9 → D+13.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +1.1 · 80% CI R+10.9 → D+13.1
Actual result D+4.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 57% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.9 (10th pctile) to D+13.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 57% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +1.1

80% CI: R +10.9 → D +13.1 · win prob 57%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+4.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DGabe Vasquez0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RYvette Herell0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-27

Gabe VasquezH2NM02191 ↗

Receipts

$7.0M

Disburse

$7.0M

Cash on hand

$39.1K

Debts

Top industries

Education$37.7K

Computers / electronics$12.4K

Govt employees$10.5K

Securities & investment$9.9K

Top contributors

SINGLETON SCHREIBER$36.3K

MCGINN, MONTOYA, LOVE & CURRY$24.5K

UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO$24.0K

NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY$13.6K

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN FRANCISCO$12.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$25.6M

D side

$19.0M · 74%

R side

$6.6M · 26%

Top spender

CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…

For / against split

For Vasquez $888.1K

Against Herrell $18.1M

Against Vasquez $4.3M

For Herrell $2.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$2.9M	11%	against Gabe Vasquez
NRCC	R	$1.1M	4%	against Gabe Vasquez
BLUE CD2 NEW MEXICO USA	D	$463.1K	2%	for Gabe Vasquez
AMERICA PAC	R	$248.3K	1%	against Gabe Vasquez
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	D	$162.9K	1%	for Gabe Vasquez

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D4

Tossup1

CNalysis

Lean D

Nov 15

Cook Political Report

Tossup

Feb 1

Elections Daily

Lean D

Sep 6

Inside Elections

Lean D

Oct 30

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-27

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks