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Races · house · 2024 · New Jersey
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Tim Alexander vs Jeff Van Drew

← New Jersey houseNew Jersey house →
Safe RR +27.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Alexander (D)
99% Drew (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +27.2 · 80% CI R+39.2 → R+15.2
Actual result R+16.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.2 (10th pctile) to R+15.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.2
80% CI: R +39.2 → R +15.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+16.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJeff Van Drew0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTim Alexander0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-30
Jeff Van DrewOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$762.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Oil & gas$9.0K
Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR$71.0K
PULSE VASCULAR$9.9K
ICONA RESORTS$9.9K
MONZO CATANESE HILLEGASS$9.0K
ARS$7.3K
Tim AlexanderOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$195.5K
Disburse
$196.9K
Cash on hand
$13.6K
Debts
$31.4K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$3.3K
Pharma / health products$2.5K
Education$2.1K
Top contributors
LAW OFFICES OF ROBERT EBBERUP ESQ.$3.3K
AK PHARMACEUTICALS$2.5K
LOGAN TOWNSHIP$2.0K
DRD CONSULTING$1.5K
IT TAKES A FAMIKY$1.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$7.8K
D side
$7.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Salerno $7.8K

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Mar 20
Decision Desk HQ
Likely R
Oct 6
Elections Daily
Safe R
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe R
May 8
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Sep 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-30
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks