Races · house · 2024 · Michigan
house · open seat
Callie Barr vs Jack Bergman
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+32.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.7 (10th pctile) to R+20.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +32.7
80% CI: R +44.7 → R +20.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+21.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRJack Bergman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCallie Barr0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-04Jack BergmanH6MI01226 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$110.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$31.8K
Education · $31.8K
- Mit45 · $31.8K
Individuals $31.8K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$11.8K
Securities & investment · $11.8K
- Charles Schwab Corp · $11.8K
Individuals $11.8K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$9.1K
Computers / electronics · $9.1K
- Oracle · $9.1K
Individuals $9.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$87.1K
ART MORAN BUICK GMC$33.4K
MIT45$31.8K
THE RICH DAD COMPANY$13.2K
ZURICH$12.9K
Callie BarrH4MI01155 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$7.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$40.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $40.3K
- Jones Day · $40.3K
Individuals $40.3K · PACs $0
Education$9.2K
Education · $9.2K
- University of Michigan · $9.2K
Individuals $9.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
JONES DAY$40.3K
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN$9.2K
GREEN BRICK FOUNDATION$6.6K
DOVER DEVELOPMENT$6.6K
STRYKER CORP.$6.6K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$129.4K
D side
$24.0K · 19%
R side
$105.4K · 81%
Top spender
SPECIAL OPERATIONS …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $100.0K | 77% | for Jack Bergman |
| THE FIGHT FOR MICHIGAN 1 PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $24.0K | 19% | for Callie Barr |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $4.9K | 4% | for Jack Bergman |
| RIGHT TO LIFE OF MICHIGAN VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $562.31 | 0% | for Jack Bergman |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Callie Barr |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 15
- Elections Daily · Feb 4
- Inside Elections · Nov 15
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 15
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks