Races · house · 2024 · Maine
house · open seat
Jared Golden vs Mike Soboleski
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 66% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+2.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.5 (10th pctile) to D+9.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 66% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +2.5
80% CI: R +14.5 → D +9.5 · win prob 34%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+0.7 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDJared Golden0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Soboleski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-12Jared GoldenH8ME02185 ↗
Receipts
$7.9M
Disburse
$7.9M
Cash on hand
$126.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$13.2K
Health professionals · $13.2K
- Mass General Hospital · $13.2K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$12.0K
Securities & investment · $12.0K
- Apollo · $12.0K
Individuals $12.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
GREYLOCK PARTNERS$19.4K
BERKSHIRE PARTNERS, LLC$18.1K
BREAKTHRU BEVERAGE GROUP$14.8K
TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, LLC$14.1K
BLOOMBERG, LP$13.2K
Mike SoboleskiH4ME02283 ↗
Receipts
$129.7K
Disburse
$129.7K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$3.3K
Real estate · $3.3K
- Cross Properties · $3.3K
Individuals $3.3K · PACs $0
Govt employees$2.9K
Govt employees · $2.9K
- State of Maine · $2.9K
Individuals $2.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
COHEN KLINGENSTEIN$6.6K
CENTRAL MAINE MOTORS$6.6K
EMERSON TOYOTA$5.0K
RELIANCE EQUIP$4.3K
SFE MFG INC$3.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$46.9M
D side
$8.5M · 18%
R side
$38.3M · 82%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $15.8M | 34% | against Jared Golden |
| NRCC party · boosts R
| R | $11.5M | 25% | against Jared Golden |
| RESTORATION PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $7.5M | 16% | against Jared Golden |
| WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. super pac · boosts D
| D | $6.4M | 14% | for Jared Golden |
| STRATEGIC MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.0M | 4% | against Jared Golden |
| CONSERVATIVE OUTSIDER PAC INC super pac · boosts R
| R | $212.0K | 0% | for Mike Soboleski |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D3
Lean D · 3 raters
- Decision Desk HQ · May 31
- Elections Daily · Nov 3
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 4
Tilt D1
Tilt D · 1 rater
- CNalysis · Nov 15
Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 30
- Inside Elections · Sep 25
CNalysis
Tilt DThe Cook Political Report
TossupDecision Desk HQ
Lean DElections Daily
Lean DInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-12
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks