Races · house · 2024 · Iowa
house · open seat
Ryan Melton vs Randy Feenstra
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+31.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.1 (10th pctile) to R+19.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +31.1
80% CI: R +43.1 → R +19.1 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+34.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetRRandy Feenstra0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DRyan Melton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJody Puffett0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-22Randy FeenstraH0IA04145 ↗
Receipts
$4.3M
Disburse
$4.2M
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$13.2K
Internet · $13.2K
- Sabin Metal Corp · $13.2K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Education$9.9K
Education · $9.9K
- Summit Agricultural Group · $9.9K
Individuals $9.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MARQUIS MANAGEMENT INC.$21.8K
BGR GROUP$15.8K
DOLL DISTRIBUTING$13.7K
FRONTIER BANK$13.4K
SABIN METAL CORP$13.2K
Ryan MeltonH2IA04141 ↗
Receipts
$153.1K
Disburse
$155.2K
Cash on hand
$2.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$2.3K
Crop production · $2.3K
- Tyson Fresh Meats · $1.5K
- Dan Stanislav Farms · $724
Individuals $2.3K · PACs $0
Education$1.9K
Education · $1.9K
- University of Iowa · $1.9K
Individuals $1.9K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$1.0K
Computers / electronics · $1.0K
- Microsoft · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ISU$1.9K
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA$1.9K
TYSON FRESH MEATS$1.5K
HICKORY PARK, INC$1.3K
SODEXO$1.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$153.3K
D side
$30.29 · 0%
R side
$153.2K · 100%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $133.6K | 87% | for Randy Feenstra |
| NATIONAL WILDLIFE FEDERATION ACTION FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $19.6K | 13% | for Randy Feenstra |
| IOWA CITIZENS FOR COMMUNITY IMPROVEMENT ACTION FUND pac · boosts D
| D | $30.29 | 0% | for Ryan Melton |
| KOCH, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (KOCHPAC) pac · boosts R
| R | $2.5 | 0% | for Randy Feenstra |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 3
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 31
- Decision Desk HQ · May 31
- Elections Daily · Nov 3
- Inside Elections · Oct 30
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 6
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-22
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks