NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · California
</> Embed
house · open seat

Joe Kerr vs Young Kim

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe RR +19.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Kerr (D)
99% Kim (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +19.2 · 80% CI R+31.2 → R+7.2
Actual result R+10.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.2 (10th pctile) to R+7.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.2
80% CI: R +31.2 → R +7.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+10.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RYoung Kim0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJoe Kerr0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-04
Young KimH8CA39240 ↗
Receipts
$9.2M
Disburse
$7.9M
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$84.4K
Top industries
Securities & investment$11.1K
Top contributors
FOUNDERS FUND$14.3K
EDWARD C. LEVY CO.$13.2K
VETERANS GUARDIAN VA CLAIM CONSULTING$13.2K
APOLLO$11.1K
HUGGINS DRECKMAN INS$11.1K
Joe KerrH4CA40098 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$6.6K
Top contributors
I77 STRATEGIES, LLC.$13.2K
BAY AREA AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT DISTRI$6.6K
ICSI$6.6K
ORANGE COUNTY FIREFIGHTERS$6.6K
CLEAN VIRGINIA$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$5.0M
D side
$268.6K · 5%
R side
$4.7M · 95%
Top spender
FAIRSHAKE
For / against split
For Kerr $265.2K
Against Kim $3.5K
Against Kerr $34.5K
For Kim $4.7M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
FAIRSHAKER$3.8M77%for Young Kim
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$644.3K13%for Young Kim
FLIP THE 40THD$232.1K5%for Joe Kerr
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$196.3K4%for Young Kim
CARE ACTIONR$34.5K1%for Young Kim
WORKING AMERICAD$32.0K1%for Joe Kerr
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$6.3K0%for Young Kim
PLANNED PARENTHOOD AFFILIATES OF CALIFORNIA VOTES PACD$918.290%for Joe Kerr
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PACD$119.410%for Joe Kerr

Editorial ratings · 2 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R1
Likely R1
CNalysis
Lean R
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Feb 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks