Races · house · 2024 · Arizona

house · open seat

Kirsten Engel vs Juan Ciscomani

← Arizona house Arizona house →

Likely RR +11.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
3% Engel (D)
97% Ciscomani (R)
Win probability
Kirsten Engel3% (D)
Juan Ciscomani97% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +11.1
80% CIR+23.1 → D+0.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +11.1 · 80% CI R+23.1 → D+0.9
Actual result R+2.5 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 97% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.1 (10th pctile) to D+0.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +11.1

80% CI: R +23.1 → D +0.9 · win prob 3%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+2.5
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

RJuan Ciscomani0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DKirsten Engel0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LVance Cast0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-09

Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360 ↗

Receipts

$7.0M

Disburse

$6.9M

Cash on hand

$236.6K

Debts

Top industries

Real estate$48.0K

Top contributors

HSL PROPERTIES$26.9K

APS$23.4K

HYDRONALIX$21.8K

COTTONWOOD PROPERTIES$21.1K

WINDMILL WINERY$14.7K

Kirsten EngelH2AZ02311 ↗

Receipts

$8.5M

Disburse

$8.4M

Cash on hand

$32.4K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Vance CastOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$50.1K

Disburse

$37.9K

Cash on hand

$12.2K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$11.3M

D side

$9.4M · 83%

R side

$1.9M · 17%

Top spender

HMP

For / against split

For Engel $968.8K

Against Ciscomani $8.4M

For Ciscomani $1.9M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HMP	D	$7.6M	67%	against Juan Ciscomani
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$817.4K	7%	for Juan Ciscomani
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$711.0K	6%	for Juan Ciscomani
WORKER POWER PAC	D	$627.0K	6%	for Kirsten Engel
PRO-CHOICE MAJORITY 2024	D	$600.0K	5%	against Juan Ciscomani
SAVE WESTERN CULTURE	D	$271.5K	2%	against Juan Ciscomani
WORKER POWER	D	$128.0K	1%	for Kirsten Engel
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$84.5K	1%	for Kirsten Engel
COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA - WORKING VOICES	D	$24.2K	0%	for Kirsten Engel

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup3

Lean R2

Likely R1

CNalysis

Tossup

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Jul 27

Decision Desk HQ

Likely R

Oct 20

Elections Daily

Lean R

Nov 3

Inside Elections

Tossup

Oct 30

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel

Jun 22, 2026Lean Rmodel

May 11, 2026Tossupmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-09

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks