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Races · house · 2024 · Arizona
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Yassamin Ansari vs Jeff Zink

← Arizona houseArizona house →
Safe DD +54.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Ansari (D)
1% Zink (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +54.2 · 80% CI D+42.2 → D+66.2
Actual result D+44.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+22) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+54.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+42.2 (10th pctile) to D+66.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +54.2
80% CI: D +42.2 → D +66.2 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+44.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DYassamin Ansari0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJeff Zink0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-09
Yassamin AnsariH4AZ03109 ↗
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$2.9M
Cash on hand
$10.4K
Debts
$375.0K
Top industries
Govt employees$11.1K
Education$9.3K
Lawyers / law firms$8.8K
Top contributors
PIVOTAL GROUP$15.8K
WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT$13.2K
BIJAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT$13.2K
HOME CREATIONS$11.7K
RELIANCE MANAGEMENT$11.6K
Jeff ZinkOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$60.8K
Disburse
$79.4K
Cash on hand
$559.74
Debts
$70.0K
Top industries
Crop production$250
Lawyers / law firms$250
Top contributors
OWNER$8.5K
WE THE PEOPLE AZ ALLIANCE$5.5K
SPA ENRICHMENT GROUP$1.0K
COMPLIANCE TESTING LLC$500
ZACKY FARMS$250

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$5.5M
D side
$5.2M · 95%
R side
$251.2K · 5%
Top spender
PROTECT PROGRESS
For / against split
For Ansari $5.2M
Against Ansari $251.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PROTECT PROGRESSD$2.7M50%for Yassamin Ansari
DMFI PACD$1.0M19%for Yassamin Ansari
MAINSTREAM DEMOCRATS PACD$714.5K13%for Yassamin Ansari
SAVE AMERICA FUNDD$656.6K12%for Yassamin Ansari
PROGRESSNOW AZ - FEDERALR$105.6K2%against Yassamin Ansari

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 27
Decision Desk HQ
Safe D
Oct 20
Elections Daily
Safe D
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jul 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 7

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-09
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks