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Races · house · 2024 · Arizona
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Andrei Cherny vs David Schweikert

← Arkansas houseArizona house →
Likely RR +10.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
5% Cherny (D)
95% Schweikert (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +10.1 · 80% CI R+22.1 → D+1.9
Actual result R+3.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 95% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.1 (10th pctile) to D+1.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +10.1
80% CI: R +22.1 → D +1.9 · win prob 5%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+3.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDavid Schweikert0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAndrei Cherny0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-09
David SchweikertH4AZ06045 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$4.2M
Cash on hand
$49.8K
Debts
$168.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
CEO$16.7K
STENSON TAMADDON$13.7K
OPTIMA FINANCIAL GROUP$13.6K
VETERANS GUARDIANS$13.2K
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$13.2K
Andrei ChernyH4AZ01202 ↗
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$5.4K
Debts
$13.9K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$23.9K
Securities & investment$23.3K
Top contributors
BAIN CAPITAL$13.2K
MICHELMAN & ROBINSON LLP$13.2K
NEW FREEDOM$12.1K
LOWENSTEIN SANDLER LLP$10.7K
BLACKSTONE$10.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$18.9M
D side
$17.8M · 94%
R side
$1.2M · 6%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Cherny $1.4M
Against Schweikert $16.4M
For Schweikert $1.2M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$9.4M50%against David Schweikert
DCCCD$5.5M29%against David Schweikert
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$969.2K5%for David Schweikert
PROTECT PROGRESSD$830.6K4%for Andrei Cherny
DEMOCRACYFIRST PACD$597.6K3%against David Schweikert
VOTEVETSD$535.0K3%for Andrei Cherny
EDF ACTION VOTESD$447.2K2%against David Schweikert
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$171.260%for Andrei Cherny
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$129.170%for Andrei Cherny

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tossup2
Tilt R1
Lean R2
CNalysis
Tossup
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Jul 27
Decision Desk HQ
Lean R
Oct 20
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Oct 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tossupmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-09
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks