Races · house · 2022 · Tennessee
house · open seat
Heidi Campbell vs Andy Ogles
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 70% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.2 (10th pctile) to D+8.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 70% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +3.2
80% CI: R +15.2 → D +8.8 · win prob 30%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+13.5 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDHeidi Campbell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAndy Ogles0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-30Andy OglesH2TN05446 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$888.8K
Cash on hand
$124.7K
Debts
$20.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
HUSKEY TRUSS$5.8K
SELF EMPLOYEED$5.8K
BEAMAN VENTURES$5.8K
J.W. CHILDS ASSOCIATES$5.6K
HARLEY-DAVIDSON OF COLUMBIA$5.4K
Heidi CampbellH2TN05438 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$5.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$11.1K
Health professionals · $11.1K
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center · $11.1K
Individuals $11.1K · PACs $0
Education$9.3K
Education · $9.3K
- Vanderbilt University · $9.3K
Individuals $9.3K · PACs $0
Govt employees$5.4K
Govt employees · $5.4K
- State of Tennessee · $5.4K
Individuals $5.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
VUMC$11.8K
VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER$11.1K
VANDERBILT$10.3K
VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY$9.3K
AJAX MGT.$5.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$7.1M
D side
$3.9M · 54%
R side
$3.3M · 46%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVE AMERIC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVE AMERICANS PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.8M | 40% | against Andy Ogles |
| USA FREEDOM FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.6M | 22% | for Andy Ogles |
| SCHOOL FREEDOM FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $657.6K | 9% | for Andy Ogles |
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $615.2K | 9% | for Andy Ogles |
| TENNESSEE CONSERVATIVES PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $522.7K | 7% | against Andy Ogles |
| TENNESSEE IMMIGRANT AND REFUGEE RIGHTS COALITION VOTES ACTION PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $198.0K | 3% | for Heidi Campbell |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Heidi Campbell |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R4
Likely R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 13
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- Inside Elections · May 22
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- 538 · Jun 29
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 7
The Cook Political Report
Likely RDDHQ
Likely RThe Economist
Likely R538
Safe RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-30
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks