NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · Oklahoma
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Adam Martin vs Kevin Hern

← Oklahoma houseOregon house →
Safe RR +20.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Martin (D)
99% Hern (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +20.9 · 80% CI R+32.9 → R+8.9
Actual result R+21.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+20.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+32.9 (10th pctile) to R+8.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +20.9
80% CI: R +32.9 → R +8.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+21.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RKevin Hern0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAdam Martin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-05

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$218.0K
D side
$16.8K · 8%
R side
$201.2K · 92%
Top spender
NATIONAL VICTORY AC…
For / against split
For Harris-Till $86.32
Against Bice $16.7K
For Bice $201.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUNDR$200.0K92%for Stephanie Bice
DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PACD$16.7K8%against Stephanie Bice
THE GUARDIAN FUNDR$9020%for Stephanie Bice
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$302.480%for Stephanie Bice
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)D$86.320%for Joshua Harris-Till
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%against Stephanie Bice

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 22
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Dec 26
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Dec 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks