Races · house · 2022 · Ohio
house · open seat
Marcy Kaptur vs J. R. Majewski
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 78% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.4 (10th pctile) to D+16.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 78% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +4.6
80% CI: R +7.4 → D +16.6 · win prob 78%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+13.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDMarcy Kaptur0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJ. R. Majewski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11J. R. MajewskiH2OH09155 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$6.1K
Debts
$10.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
JOHN STOCK & ASSOCIATES$11.6K
ROPPE HOLDING CORP$11.5K
STANSLEY INDUSTRIES$10.0K
FOR AMERICA BY AMERICA$7.9K
COGNEX$5.8K
Marcy KapturH2OH09031 ↗
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$380.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$13.3K
Education · $13.3K
- University of Toledo · $13.3K
Individuals $13.3K · PACs $0
Mining$6.7K
Mining · $6.7K
- Ohio Fuel Cell Coalition · $6.7K
Individuals $6.7K · PACs $0
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF TOLEDO$13.3K
PROMEDICA$11.5K
THE DASCHLE GROUP$7.9K
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES$7.8K
CARNEGIE CORPORATION$7.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10.4M
D side
$7.9M · 75%
R side
$2.6M · 25%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $6.4M | 62% | against J. R. Majewski |
| THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.8M | 17% | against Marcy Kaptur |
| CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $834.3K | 8% | for Marcy Kaptur |
| DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $408.2K | 4% | for J. R. Majewski |
| DCCC party · boosts D
| D | $359.0K | 3% | against J. R. Majewski |
| CLIMATE POWER ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $148.3K | 1% | for Marcy Kaptur |
| USA FREEDOM FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $143.2K | 1% | for J. R. Majewski |
| DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $127.0K | 1% | for J. R. Majewski |
| AMERICAN PRINCIPLES PROJECT PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $92.2K | 1% | against Marcy Kaptur |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- 538 · Oct 24
Lean D3
Lean D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Sep 29
- Inside Elections · Oct 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 28
Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- The Economist · Sep 27
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- DDHQ · Oct 16
The Cook Political Report
Lean DDDHQ
Lean RThe Economist
Tossup538
Likely DInside Elections
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-11
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks