Races · house · 2022 · New York
house · open seat
Francis Conole vs Brandon Williams
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 61% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.7 (10th pctile) to D+10.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 61% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +1.7
80% CI: R +13.7 → D +10.3 · win prob 39%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | Brandon M Williams +1.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRBrandon Williams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DFrancis Conole0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08Brandon WilliamsH2NY22212 ↗
Receipts
$941.4K
Disburse
$917.2K
Cash on hand
$24.2K
Debts
$105.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
UPSTATE$11.6K
CLEARSIGHT ADVISORS$8.7K
ANNANDALE CAPITAL$8.7K
PWC$7.4K
REVERE COOPER$6.3K
Francis ConoleH0NY24063 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$5.8K
Debts
$39.1K
Top industries
Education$26.8K
Education · $26.8K
- Syracuse University · $26.8K
Individuals $26.8K · PACs $0
Health professionals$19.6K
Health professionals · $19.6K
- Upstate Medical University · $10.9K
- Inova Fairfax Hospital · $8.7K
Individuals $19.6K · PACs $0
Commercial banks$6.1K
Commercial banks · $6.1K
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch · $6.1K
Individuals $6.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY$26.8K
ALLIANCE ENERGY GROUP$11.6K
UPSTATE MEDICAL UNIVERSITY$10.9K
NASA$8.7K
MILLBROOK CAPITAL$8.7K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$32.5M
D side
$15.0M · 46%
R side
$17.6M · 54%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $10.6M | 33% | against Brandon Williams |
| NRCC party · boosts R
| R | $6.9M | 21% | against Francis Conole |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $6.9M | 21% | against Francis Conole |
| AMERICAN PATRIOTS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.8M | 8% | for Brandon Williams |
| DCCC party · boosts D
| D | $2.4M | 8% | against Brandon Williams |
| VOTEVETS super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.2M | 4% | against Brandon Williams |
| AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $413.1K | 1% | for Brandon Williams |
| 1199 SERVICE EMPLOYEES INT'L UNION FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION FUND pac · boosts D
| D | $356.6K | 1% | for Francis Conole |
| LCV VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $174.0K | 1% | for Francis Conole |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · May 22
- DDHQ · Oct 28
- The Economist · Oct 31
Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- FiveThirtyEight · Nov 3
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 25
The Cook Political Report
TossupDDHQ
TossupThe Economist
TossupFiveThirtyEight
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks