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Races · house · 2022 · New York
house · open seat

Matt Castelli vs Elise Stefanik

← New York houseNew York house →
Safe RR +23.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Castelli (D)
99% Stefanik (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +23.1 · 80% CI R+35.1 → R+11.2
Actual result R+13.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.1 (10th pctile) to R+11.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.1
80% CI: R +35.1 → R +11.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RElise Stefanik0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMatt Castelli0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-27
Elise StefanikH4NY21079 ↗
Receipts
$9.5M
Disburse
$10.6M
Cash on hand
$916.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
BEST EFFORT USED$13.1K
PARK SAVOY$11.6K
OWNER$11.5K
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$11.4K
LEADING PROPERTY$10.8K
Matt CastelliOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$2.5M
Disburse
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$100.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$11.6K
Oil & gas$8.7K
Top contributors
UNITE US$12.2K
BAIN CAPITAL$11.6K
HUDSON RIVER TRADING$10.6K
ADK TRAIL IMPROVEMENT SOC.$8.7K
PINOT'S PALETTE$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$564.6K
D side
$333.3K · 59%
R side
$231.4K · 41%
Top spender
THE LINCOLN PROJECT
For / against split
Against Stefanik $333.3K
For Stefanik $231.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
THE LINCOLN PROJECTD$267.2K47%against Elise Stefanik
NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUNDR$180.0K32%for Elise Stefanik
RURAL FREEDOM NETWORKD$40.0K7%against Elise Stefanik
CITIZENS FOR RESPONSIBLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS INC.R$38.0K7%for Elise Stefanik
MEIDASTOUCHD$19.7K3%against Elise Stefanik

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
May 22
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
May 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-27
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks