Races · house · 2022 · New York

house · open seat

Paul Tonko vs Liz Joy

← New York house New York house →

Safe DD +19.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Tonko (D)
1% Joy (R)
Win probability
Paul Tonko99% (D)
Liz Joy1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +19.4
80% CID+7.3 → D+31.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +19.4 · 80% CI D+7.3 → D+31.4
Actual result D+12.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.3 (10th pctile) to D+31.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +19.4

80% CI: D +7.3 → D +31.4 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+12.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DPaul Tonko0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RLiz Joy0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28

Paul TonkoH8NY21203 ↗

Receipts

$1.8M

Disburse

$1.9M

Cash on hand

$726.1K

Debts

Top industries

Real estate$5.8K

Top contributors

PLUG POWER INC$13.8K

PLUG POWER$12.9K

AURORA PICTURES$7.1K

BREAKTHROUGH ENERGY$5.8K

JACKSON FAMILY WINES$5.8K

Liz JoyH0NY20111 ↗

Receipts

$1.2M

Disburse

$1.2M

Cash on hand

$22.9K

Debts

Top industries

Pharma / health products$8.7K

Internet$5.8K

Top contributors

LETTER SENT REQUESTING DATA$15.7K

PHARMAPOTHECA$8.7K

MORNINGSIDE$8.7K

SARATOGA NATIONAL GOLF CLUB$7.9K

HOFFMAN CAR WASH$6.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$77.28

D side

$77.28 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

ENVIRONMENT AMERICA…

For / against split

For Tonko $68.6

Against Joy $8.68

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	D	$49.92	65%	for Paul Tonko
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$17.36	22%	for Paul Tonko
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	13%	for Paul Tonko

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D2

Likely D1

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

May 22

The Economist

Likely D

Sep 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

May 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks