Races · house · 2022 · Nevada

house · open seat

Dina Titus vs Mark Robertson

← New Mexico house Nevada house →

Likely DD +6.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
86% Titus (D)
14% Robertson (R)
Win probability
Dina Titus86% (D)
Mark Robertson14% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +6.5
80% CIR+5.5 → D+18.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +6.5 · 80% CI R+5.5 → D+18.5
Actual result D+5.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 86% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.5 (10th pctile) to D+18.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 86% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +6.5

80% CI: R +5.5 → D +18.5 · win prob 86%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+5.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DDina Titus0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMark Robertson0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-29

Dina TitusH8NV03036 ↗

Receipts

$3.4M

Disburse

$3.5M

Cash on hand

$173.2K

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$13.4K

Health professionals$8.7K

Insurance$6.2K

Top contributors

UNLV$11.6K

BROWN, BROWN & PREMSRIRUT$11.4K

WOMEN'S CANCER CENTER OF NEVADA$9.3K

MASS GENERAL HOSPITAL$8.7K

ROCKY RESEARCH$7.8K

Mark RobertsonH2NV03153 ↗

Receipts

$1.3M

Disburse

$1.2M

Cash on hand

$169.0K

Debts

$8.1K

Top industries

Electric utilities$7.8K

Top contributors

CALIFORNIA POOLS$12.8K

SUNRISE PAVING INC$11.6K

AMERICA'S MART$11.6K

RAN$10.7K

THE REVOLUTION FMO LLC$10.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$11.1M

D side

$4.4M · 39%

R side

$6.7M · 61%

Top spender

CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…

For / against split

For Titus $641.2K

Against Robertson $3.8M

Against Titus $6.5M

For Robertson $197.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$6.4M	57%	against Dina Titus
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$3.6M	33%	against Mark Robertson
WE VOTE WE WIN	D	$350.7K	3%	for Dina Titus
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$323.0K	3%	for Mark Robertson
DCCC	D	$120.0K	1%	against Mark Robertson
FOR OUR FUTURE	D	$85.9K	1%	for Dina Titus
CLIMATE POWER ACTION	D	$71.3K	1%	for Dina Titus
FREEDOMWORKS FOR AMERICA	R	$29.0K	0%	for Mark Robertson
AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	R	$6.1K	0%	for Mark Robertson

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tilt D1

Tossup4

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

May 25

DDHQ

Tossup

Nov 1

The Economist

Tossup

Nov 1

538

Tossup

Oct 31

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Aug 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 16

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-29

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks