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Races · house · 2022 · North Carolina
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Don Davis vs Differentiators Data

← North Carolina houseNorth Dakota house →
Likely RR +13.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Davis (D)
99% Data (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +13.4 · 80% CI R+25.4 → R+1.4
Actual result D+15.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.4 (10th pctile) to R+1.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.4
80% CI: R +25.4 → R +1.4 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+15.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDifferentiators Data0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDon Davis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-04

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$179.5K
D side
$179.5K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SEIU COPE (SERVICE …
For / against split
For Jackson $179.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$163.3K91%for Jeff Jackson
NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEED$13.7K8%for Jeff Jackson
NCAAT IN ACTIOND$1.9K1%for Jeff Jackson
JDCA PACD$358.50%for Jeff Jackson
NEW NORTH CAROLINA PROJECTD$74.150%for Jeff Jackson

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Likely D1
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Feb 22
DDHQ
Likely D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Sep 28
Inside Elections
Safe D
Aug 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Sep 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks