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Races · house · 2022 · North Carolina
house · open seat

Don Davis vs Sandy Smith

← Montana houseNorth Carolina house →
Likely DD +14.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Davis (D)
1% Smith (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +14.7 · 80% CI D+2.7 → D+26.7
Actual result D+4.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.7 (10th pctile) to D+26.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +14.7
80% CI: D +2.7 → D +26.7 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+4.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DDon Davis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSandy Smith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-17
Sandy SmithH0NC03149 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$12.8K
Debts
$133.4K
Top industries
Computers / electronics$2.9K
Health professionals$2.9K
Top contributors
RELIABLE$5.8K
ULINE$5.8K
WESTERN NATIONAL GROUP$5.8K
PENCOR$5.4K
DILLON GAGE$5.2K
Don DavisH2NC02287 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$18.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$11.6K
Crop production$5.8K
Top contributors
TIME INVESTMENT CORP.$6.3K
ALSOP LOUIE PARTNERS$5.8K
TULL HILL FARMS INC$5.8K
VIDANT MEDICAL CENTER$5.8K
MASS GENERAL HOSPITAL$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$16.9M
D side
$16.7M · 99%
R side
$119.9K · 1%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Davis $3.4M
Against Smith $13.4M
Against Davis $3.8K
For Smith $116.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$8.7M51%against Sandy Smith
DCCCD$4.4M26%against Sandy Smith
UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT (UDP)D$2.1M12%for Don Davis
VOTEVETSD$628.9K4%against Sandy Smith
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$292.9K2%for Don Davis
MAINSTREAM DEMOCRATS PACD$287.7K2%against Sandy Smith
DMFI PACD$180.5K1%for Don Davis
NRDC ACTION VOTESD$160.0K1%against Sandy Smith

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D3
Lean D2
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Oct 24
DDHQ
Lean D
Oct 17
The Economist
Likely D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Oct 25
Inside Elections
Likely D
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Oct 11

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 15, 2026Tossupmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks