Races · house · 2022 · Kentucky

house · open seat

Conor Halbleib vs Hal Rogers

← Kentucky house Kentucky house →

Safe RR +53.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Halbleib (D)
99% Rogers (R)
Win probability
Conor Halbleib1% (D)
Hal Rogers99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +53.8
80% CIR+65.8 → R+41.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +53.8 · 80% CI R+65.8 → R+41.8
Actual result R+64.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+32) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+53.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+65.8 (10th pctile) to R+41.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +53.8

80% CI: R +65.8 → R +41.8 · win prob 1%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+64.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RHal Rogers0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DConor Halbleib0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Hal RogersOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$820.5K

Disburse

$944.4K

Cash on hand

$713.0K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

OUTDOOR VENTURE$10.8K

CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS$10.0K

MCCARTHY STRATEGIC SOLUTIONS$6.8K

FORCHT BANK$6.3K

HUNT COMPANIES, INC.$5.8K

Conor HalbleibOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$18.7K

Disburse

$19.1K

Cash on hand

$623.42

Debts

$1.7K

Top industries

Health professionals$300

Top contributors

CROWN PACKAGING$2.6K

STITES & HARBISON$400

MEDICAL KNOWLEDGE GROUP$300

US CENSUS BUREAU$280

RE-MAX RESULTS$250

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jan 23

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe R

Oct 17

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

Feb 21

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jan 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks