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Races · house · 2022 · Kentucky
house · open seat

Morgan McGarvey vs Stuart Ray

← Kentucky houseKentucky house →
Safe DD +21.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% McGarvey (D)
1% Ray (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +21.1 · 80% CI D+9.1 → D+33.1
Actual result D+24.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+21.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+9.1 (10th pctile) to D+33.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +21.1
80% CI: D +9.1 → D +33.1 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+24.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMorgan McGarvey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RStuart Ray0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-17
Morgan McGarveyH2KY03206 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$2.9M
Cash on hand
$221.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$24.9K
Education$13.1K
Crop production$11.6K
Lawyers / law firms$11.1K
Top contributors
NORTON HEALTHCARE$24.9K
FROST BROWN TODD$24.9K
GOLDBERG SIMPSON$15.0K
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC$14.5K
BROWN-FORMAN$13.4K
Stuart RayOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$623.0K
Disburse
$621.2K
Cash on hand
$1.7K
Debts
$104.2K
Top industries
Real estate$8.7K
Top contributors
CEP HOLDINGS$9.8K
DENTON FLOYD REAL ESTATE GROUP$8.7K
W. AUSTIN MUSSELMAN JR.$8.7K
STEEL TECHNOLOGIES$8.7K
ADVANCE READY-MIX CONCRETE, INC.$8.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.0M
D side
$2.0M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC
For / against split
For McGarvey $2.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PACD$1.9M95%for Morgan McGarvey
DMFI PACD$104.3K5%for Morgan McGarvey
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYD$460.680%for Morgan McGarvey
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTIOND$256.580%for Morgan McGarvey
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Morgan McGarvey

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Likely D1
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jan 23
DDHQ
Likely D
Oct 17
The Economist
Safe D
Oct 17
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Feb 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jan 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks