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Races · house · 2022 · Arizona
house · open seat

Kirsten Engel vs Juan Ciscomani

← Arizona houseArizona house →
Likely RR +6.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
15% Engel (D)
85% Ciscomani (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +6.2 · 80% CI R+18.2 → D+5.8
Actual result R+1.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 85% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+6.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.2 (10th pctile) to D+5.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 85% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +6.2
80% CI: R +18.2 → D +5.8 · win prob 15%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+1.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DKirsten Engel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJuan Ciscomani0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08
Kirsten EngelH2AZ02311 ↗
Receipts
$2.5M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$1.3K
Debts
$5.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360 ↗
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$3.3M
Cash on hand
$54.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$43.9K
Securities & investment$16.1K
Health professionals$11.6K
Top contributors
HSL PROPERTIES$20.6K
BLACKSTONE$16.1K
WINDMILL WINERY$11.7K
HSL PROPERTIES INC$11.6K
COTTONWOOD PROPERTIES$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$14.0M
D side
$335.6K · 2%
R side
$13.7M · 98%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Engel $335.6K
Against Engel $13.6M
For Ciscomani $47.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$8.6M61%against Kirsten Engel
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$4.9M35%against Kirsten Engel
UNITED WE CAND$137.9K1%for Kirsten Engel
OUR VOICE OUR VOTE ARIZONA PACD$121.1K1%for Kirsten Engel
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$112.1K1%against Kirsten Engel
AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.R$11.3K0%for Juan Ciscomani

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt R1
Lean R3
Likely R2
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 24
DDHQ
Likely R
Oct 25
The Economist
Lean R
Oct 15
FiveThirtyEight
Likely R
Oct 25
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks