Races · house · 2020 · New Mexico

house · open seat

Deb Haaland vs Michelle Garcia Holmes

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Safe DD +29.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Haaland (D)
1% Holmes (R)
Win probability
Deb Haaland99% (D)
Michelle Garcia Holmes1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +29.6
80% CID+17.6 → D+41.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +29.6 · 80% CI D+17.6 → D+41.6
Actual result D+16.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+29.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+17.6 (10th pctile) to D+41.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +29.6

80% CI: D +17.6 → D +41.6 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+16.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DDeb Haaland0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMichelle Garcia Holmes0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Deb HaalandH8NM01331 ↗

Receipts

$2.3M

Disburse

$1.9M

Cash on hand

$390.8K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Michelle Garcia HolmesH0NM01189 ↗

Receipts

$395.3K

Disburse

$383.6K

Cash on hand

$11.7K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$3.5K

D side

$3.5K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

INDIVISIBLE ACTION

For / against split

For Haaland $3.4K

Against Holmes $115.05

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
INDIVISIBLE ACTION	D	$2.3K	65%	for Deb Haaland
TOGETHER WE THRIVE	D	$750	21%	for Deb Haaland
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$230.1	7%	for Deb Haaland
UNITED WE DREAM ACTION	D	$139.69	4%	for Deb Haaland
UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC	D	$84.14	2%	for Deb Haaland

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jul 1

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks