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Races · house · 2020 · Missouri
house · open seat

Jill Schupp vs Ann Wagner

← Missouri houseMissouri house →
Lean RR +3.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
27% Schupp (D)
73% Wagner (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +3.7 · 80% CI R+15.7 → D+8.3
Actual result R+6.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 73% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.7 (10th pctile) to D+8.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 73% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +3.7
80% CI: R +15.7 → D +8.3 · win prob 27%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+6.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RAnn Wagner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJill Schupp0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23
Ann WagnerH2MO02102 ↗
Receipts
$5.7M
Disburse
$6.6M
Cash on hand
$113.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jill SchuppH0MO02254 ↗
Receipts
$4.9M
Disburse
$4.8M
Cash on hand
$20.5K
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$29.4M
D side
$19.8M · 67%
R side
$9.6M · 33%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Schupp $3.5K
Against Wagner $19.8M
Against Schupp $9.3M
For Wagner $345.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$9.2M31%against Ann Wagner
DCCCD$5.9M20%against Ann Wagner
NRCCR$5.1M17%against Jill Schupp
WOMEN VOTE!D$3.7M13%against Ann Wagner
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.4M8%against Jill Schupp
HEARTLAND RESURGENCER$1.6M5%against Jill Schupp
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$932.7K3%against Ann Wagner
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$222.4K1%for Ann Wagner
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.R$168.6K1%against Jill Schupp

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt D1
Tossup1
Lean R2
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Aug 5
538
Lean R
Oct 29
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks