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Races · house · 2020 · Michigan
house · open seat

Haley Stevens vs Eric Esshaki

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Safe DD +24.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Stevens (D)
1% Esshaki (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +24.1 · 80% CI D+12.1 → D+36.1
Actual result D+2.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+9) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.1 (10th pctile) to D+36.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.1
80% CI: D +12.1 → D +36.1 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+2.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DHaley Stevens0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REric Esshaki0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LLeonard Schwartz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IFrank Acosta (write-in)0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23
Eric EsshakiH0MI11129 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$7.1K
Debts
$4.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Haley StevensH8MI11254 ↗
Receipts
$5.9M
Disburse
$5.8M
Cash on hand
$85.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$7.1M
D side
$4.2M · 59%
R side
$2.9M · 41%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Stevens $507.0K
Against Esshaki $3.7M
Against Stevens $2.4M
For Esshaki $490.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.4M33%against Haley Stevens
DCCCD$1.9M27%against Eric Esshaki
INDEPENDENCE USA PACD$1.2M17%against Eric Esshaki
MI PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$559.7K8%for Haley Stevens
THE VOTER ACCOUNTABILITY PROJECTR$480.2K7%for Eric Esshaki
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$463.6K7%against Eric Esshaki
WIN JUSTICED$26.8K0%for Haley Stevens
JDCA PACD$8.8K0%for Haley Stevens

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D1
Lean D1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Aug 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks