Races · house · 2020 · Kentucky

house · open seat

Matthew Best vs Hal Rogers

← Kentucky house Kentucky house →

Safe RR +62.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Best (D)
99% Rogers (R)
Win probability
Matthew Best1% (D)
Hal Rogers99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +62.4
80% CIR+74.4 → R+50.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +62.4 · 80% CI R+74.4 → R+50.4
Actual result R+68.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+32) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+62.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+74.4 (10th pctile) to R+50.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +62.4

80% CI: R +74.4 → R +50.4 · win prob 1%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+68.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

2Best · 67%
Rogers · 33%1
Endorsements tracked
Matthew Best2 · 67%
Hal Rogers1 · 33%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DMatthew Best2 endorsers

Most notable · Charles Booker · state representative and former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

Other1

RHal Rogers1 endorser

Most notable · Rand Paul · U.S. senator from Kentucky

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-09-30

Hal RogersH0KY05015 ↗

Receipts

$671.2K

Disburse

$842.8K

Cash on hand

$836.9K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

APPALACIAN RECOVERY CENTER$10.0K

CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS$8.0K

PRIMARY CARE CENTER$5.5K

OUTDOOR VENTURE$5.0K

MARINA @ ROWENA, LLC$5.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$10.3K

D side

$750 · 7%

R side

$9.5K · 93%

Top spender

NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…

For / against split

Against Rogers $750

For Rogers $9.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	R	$9.5K	93%	for Hal Rogers
TOGETHER WE THRIVE	D	$750	7%	against Hal Rogers

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R3

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jul 1

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-09-30

Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks