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Races · house · 2020 · Iowa
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

J.D. Scholten vs Randy Feenstra

← Iowa houseIdaho house →
Safe RR +26.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Scholten (D)
99% Feenstra (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +26.7 · 80% CI R+38.7 → R+14.7
Actual result R+24.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+26.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.7 (10th pctile) to R+14.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +26.7
80% CI: R +38.7 → R +14.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+24.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RRandy Feenstra0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJ.D. Scholten0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Randy FeenstraH0IA04145 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$11.9K
Debts
$137.8K
Top industries
Crop production$18.9K
Education$11.2K
Top contributors
OWNER$37.7K
CEO$27.1K
IOWA SELECT FARMS$11.2K
SUMMIT AGRICULTURAL GROUP$11.2K
RASMUSSEN GROUP$11.2K
J.D. ScholtenH8IA04106 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.7M
D side
$421.22 · 0%
R side
$1.7M · 100%
Top spender
PRIORITIES FOR IOWA…
For / against split
For Scholten $306.17
Against Feenstra $115.05
Against Scholten $6.0K
For Feenstra $1.7M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PRIORITIES FOR IOWA POLITICAL FUNDR$1.5M85%for Randy Feenstra
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$124.4K7%for Randy Feenstra
IOWA FOURR$99.8K6%for Randy Feenstra
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$12.6K1%for Randy Feenstra
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$11.2K1%for Randy Feenstra
AMERICA'S CONSTITUTION PACR$6.0K0%against J.D. Scholten
FOOD AND WATER ACTIOND$181.120%for J.D. Scholten
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.050%for J.D. Scholten
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for J.D. Scholten

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 1
The Economist
Likely R
Oct 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 15
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Oct 14

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks