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Races · house · 2020 · Connecticut
house · open seat

Joe Courtney vs Justin Anderson

← Connecticut houseConnecticut house →
Safe DD +23.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Courtney (D)
1% Anderson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +23.4 · 80% CI D+11.4 → D+35.4
Actual result D+18.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+23.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+11.4 (10th pctile) to D+35.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +23.4
80% CI: D +11.4 → D +35.4 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+18.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 7 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
7Courtney · 100%
DJoe Courtney7 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017)
Other5
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Organizations1
RJustin Anderson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GCassandra Martineau0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LDan Reale0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Joe CourtneyH2CT02112 ↗
Receipts
$967.9K
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$715.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Electric utilities$18.9K
Education$2.8K
Top contributors
ELECTRIC BOAT$11.6K
GENERAL DYNAMICS ELECTRIC BOAT$7.3K
GENERAL DYNAMICS$5.3K
CROSS SOUND FERRY$5.0K
JAY B. LEVIN GOVERNMENT RELATIONS CONS$4.0K
Justin AndersonH0CT02207 ↗
Receipts
$80.2K
Disburse
$78.8K
Cash on hand
$1.5K
Debts
$45.7K
Top industries
Electric utilities$250
Education$200
Top contributors
MANCHESTER BOARD OF ED$2.0K
IN PROCESS$1.5K
THEROUX & NOWELL CPA LLC$1.3K
MEDIDATA SOLUTIONS$1.0K
FINLEY HYDE & ASSOCIATES$750

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$240.1
D side
$240.1 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
For / against split
For Courtney $125.05
Against Anderson $115.05
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$230.196%for Joe Courtney
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$104%for Joe Courtney

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Sep 2

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements7 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks