Races · house · 2020 · Connecticut
house · open seat
John B. Larson vs Mary Fay
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+38.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+26.1 (10th pctile) to D+50.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +38.1
80% CI: D +26.1 → D +50.1 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+26.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet7
Endorsements tracked
John B. Larson7 · 100%
Mary Fay0 · 0%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJohn B. Larson7 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017)
Other5
Other · 5
- EMILY's List
- Robert F. Hyde · U.S. Marine Corps veteran
- Sierra Club
- Waterbury · riguez, former Waterbury city plan commissioner and candidate for the Connecticut House of Representatives in 2014
- assistant U.S. Attorney · er assistant U.S. Attorney for the District of Connecticut
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- League of Conservation Voters
RMary Fay0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GTom McCormick0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20John B. LarsonH8CT01046 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$422.4K
Debts
$12.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$7.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $7.0K
- Law Off. Frederick H. Graefe · $7.0K
Individuals $7.0K · PACs $0
Education$5.5K
Education · $5.5K
- Goodwin College · $5.5K
Individuals $5.5K · PACs $0
Air transport$5.5K
Air transport · $5.5K
- Airlines for America · $5.5K
Individuals $5.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
LAW OFF. FREDERICK H. GRAEFE$7.0K
GOODWIN COLLEGE$5.5K
AIRLINES FOR AMERICA$5.5K
MAJARS SOURCING, INC.$5.1K
HOFFMAN ENTERPRISES$4.8K
Mary FayH0CT01126 ↗
Receipts
$26.8K
Disburse
$25.1K
Cash on hand
$1.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
CHASE ENTERPRISES$2.8K
MCMAHON VENTURES$2.8K
KERIVAN-LANE$1.5K
ROIVANT SCIENCES, INC$1.0K
CARRIER GROUP INC$500
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$240.1
D side
$240.1 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $230.1 | 96% | for John B. Larson |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 4% | for John B. Larson |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements7 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks