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Races · house · 2020 · Alabama
house · open seat

Adia Winfrey vs Mike Rogers

← Alabama houseAlabama house →
Safe RR +37.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Winfrey (D)
99% Rogers (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +37.3 · 80% CI R+49.3 → R+25.3
Actual result R+35.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+23) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+37.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+49.3 (10th pctile) to R+25.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +37.3
80% CI: R +49.3 → R +25.3 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+35.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 17 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Rogers · 100%17
RMike Rogers17 endorsers
Most notable · Rick Santorum · 2012 and 2016 Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and U.S. Representative (PA-18) (1991–1995)
Elected officials7
Federal 5State 2Local 0
Other7
Organizations3
DAdia Winfrey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-20
Mike RogersH2AL03032 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$502.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$11.2K
Top contributors
CONFERENCE AMERICA$11.2K
ARONOV REALTY$11.2K
DESE RESEARCH$11.2K
LEIDOS$9.3K
WILSON HOLDINGS, INC.$8.4K
Adia WinfreyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$50.5K
Disburse
$41.2K
Cash on hand
$43.31
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$4.1K
Top contributors
AUBURN UNIVERSITY$4.1K
MS.$500
AT&T$500
STACY HERING ASTOR & ASSOC.$200
TECH$150

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$5.8K
D side
$750 · 13%
R side
$5.0K · 87%
Top spender
SOUTHEAST COTTON CO…
For / against split
Against Rogers $750
For Rogers $5.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SOUTHEAST COTTON COMMITTEE (SECC) SOUTHERN COTTONGROWERS INC/SE COTTON GINNERS ASSNR$5.0K87%for Mike Rogers
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$75013%against Mike Rogers

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-20
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks