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Races · house · 2020 · Alabama
house · open seat

Rick Neighbors vs Robert Aderholt

← Alabama houseAlabama house →
Safe RR +53.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Neighbors (D)
99% Aderholt (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +53.5 · 80% CI R+65.5 → R+41.5
Actual result R+64.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+33) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+53.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+65.5 (10th pctile) to R+41.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +53.5
80% CI: R +65.5 → R +41.5 · win prob 1%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+64.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 17 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Aderholt · 100%17
RRobert Aderholt17 endorsers
Most notable · Rick Santorum · 2012 and 2016 Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and U.S. Representative (PA-18) (1991–1995)
Elected officials7
Federal 5State 2Local 0
Other7
Organizations3
DRick Neighbors0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2019-09-30
Robert AderholtH6AL04098 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$647.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
MCWANE, INC.$28.7K
DESE RESEARCH, INC.$11.2K
TRIDEUM CORP.$8.4K
GRAY ANALYTICS$8.4K
RED DIAMOND$6.6K
Rick NeighborsOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$48.9K
Disburse
$47.9K
Cash on hand
$1.0K
Debts
$1.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$750
D side
$750 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
TOGETHER WE THRIVE
For / against split
Against Aderholt $750
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$750100%against Robert Aderholt

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2019-09-30
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks